CONFERENCE CYCLE | FROM A BOILING PLANET TO A GROWING THREAT TO PORTUGAL

14 Dec 2023 - 18:30

Auditorium 1

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Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing humanity. After several decades of research into the issue of global warming, there is now an almost absolute consensus that the climate system is experiencing a warming process as a result of greenhouse gas emissions of human origin. This consensus is based, firstly, on the inexorable evidence from observations of past and recent climate evolution, and secondly, from physical models of the climate system. In fact, climate models constitute the most powerful tool for projecting the evolution of our climate from global to regional and even local scales. The Mediterranean region, and in particular Portugal, is one of the areas in the world considered most vulnerable to climate change, which gives great relevance to quantifying climate change in Portugal in the 21st century, and its associated impacts on our society, and in particularly in areas of greatest vulnerability, such as health, coastal areas, water resources, agro-forestry and fires. For Portugal, projections cumulatively point to a significant increase in temperature, a decrease in precipitation and a huge amplification of climate extremes, such as heat waves and droughts. These transformations constitute an immense challenge for Portugal, and particularly for the most vulnerable population groups. 

 

References:  

Soares PMM, JAM Careto, DCA Lima, A Russo (2023) The future of Iberian droughts: a deeper analysis based on multi-scenario and a new multi-model ensemble approach. Natural Hazards 117:2001–2028. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05938-7

 Cardoso RM, Lima DC and Soares PMM (2023) How persistent and hazardous will extreme temperature events become in a warming Portugal?. Weather and Climate Extremes, 41, p.100600. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100600

 Soares PMM and Lima DC (2022) Water scarcity down to earth surface in a Mediterranean climate: The extreme future of soil moisture in Portugal. Journal of Hydrology, 615, p.128731. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128731.

 

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