CONFERENCE | GEOPOLITICAL AND GEOECONOMIC TRENDS OF A CHANGING WORLD

In 2023, business leaders and organizations continue to face major changes affecting job mobility, including the pressure of inflation on employer and employee budgets, the emergence of generative AI (GenAI), geopolitical turmoil, and a range of spatialized high-profile worker strikes, increased tension regarding returning to the workplace, a changing legal and social landscape for diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, the amplification of the impact of climate change, and much more. As we look ahead to what could be 2024, we can expect the disruption to continue. Leaders who proactively develop explicit business and talent strategies to navigate these trends will need to give their organizations a competitive advantage, both in talent outcomes and in achieving the organizations' strategic objectives.

Also in 2023, reduced risks became evident in trade and investment data, as restrictions were imposed by governments and as companies and investors sought to reduce exposure to geopolitical risk for commercial reasons. The benefits of economic integration limit the scope of this activity, but global economic fragmentation will accelerate in 2024. Risk reduction can easily become a decomposition with unpredictable ends. The policy creates an expansionist logic for strategic competition. It is unlikely that the “small yard, high fence” from the Biden Administration, with tight restrictions only imposed on narrowly defined sensitive technologies, be sustainable. Countries will increasingly compete across a wide range of domains. Domestic politics in key countries are likely to be pressured into escalation and retaliation, for economic and national security reasons: this will be even more pronounced with a large series of elections in many countries around the world in 2024. The world is increasingly changing and at a pace never seen before.”

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